The low-carbon transition. It’s happening. Just not fast enough.
News cycles, political noise and fund flows have distorted the picture of where the energy transition actually stands. Our Low-Carbon Transition Index cuts through it. The direction of travel is clear. The pace is not.
Global clean energy investment in 2024
Of new power capacity from renewables in 2024
Electric cars sold globally in 2024
Reduction in UK annual emissions since 1990
The headlines say chaos. The data says progress.
Perigon’s Low-Carbon Transition Index tracks seven real-economy indicators across energy, enablers and non-energy sectors. This is what the data shows.
Key findings
- Absolute global emissions are still rising. But the underlying indicators show steady positive momentum since the Paris Agreement.
- Renewables accounted for over 90% of all new power capacity added globally in 2024. The economics have tipped.
- Economic growth and emissions reduction can happen at the same time. The UK halved its emissions whilst growing GDP by nearly 80%.
- Corporate commitment is accelerating: 83% of C-suite leaders increased sustainability investment in the past year.
- A clear acceleration in pace is required to meet even the IEA’s Stated Policies Scenario. Let alone net zero.
There is a persistent gap between how the energy transition is perceived and what is actually happening. Political attacks, investor nervousness and news cycles have created the impression of a stalling, contested, uncertain shift. The data tells a different story.
Since the Paris Agreement in 2015, every major leading indicator of transition progress has moved in the right direction. Renewable capacity is growing faster than any previous energy technology in history. Electric vehicle sales have exceeded even the most optimistic projections from a decade ago.
The question is no longer whether the transition is happening. It is whether it is happening fast enough. And on that question, the answer is: not yet.
“The transition could now unfold based solely on economic forces and technology tipping points. Without further policy action.”
BloombergNEF, New Energy Outlook 2025BloombergNEF’s Economic Transition Scenario models a world where no new climate policy is enacted. It still projects $185 trillion of transition-related investment and spending — 85% of their full net-zero scenario. The economics have crossed a threshold. The technology has crossed a threshold. What remains uncertain is the pace.
Seven indicators. One clear direction. Not enough speed.
Each indicator scored on direction of travel and performance relative to what is required to align to the IEA’s 2035 Stated Policies goals.
Electricity greening
Renewables 46% of installed global capacity, up from 43%
Battery storage
23% growth in 2025 despite policy headwinds
Transport electrification
EV share exceeded 20% of global car sales in 2024
Industrial electrification
Progress positive but below pace required for STEPS
Buildings electrification
Electricity share of total final energy consumption rising
Energy intensity of GDP
Improved 1.2% in 2024; must reach 2.2% per year for STEPS
Low-carbon fuels share
Share increasing steadily; hydrogen scaling slower than expected
Deforestation
2024 rate 63% above the trajectory needed for zero deforestation by 2030
Global emissions have not peaked. But the trajectory is changing.
The bottom line of transition progress. Absolute emissions are still rising. But the composition is shifting, and high-income countries have already begun the descent.
Key findings
- Global CO₂ emissions from burning fossil fuels reached nearly 40 billion tonnes in 2024. They have not yet peaked.
- High-income countries have been reducing annual emissions for fifteen years — more than offset by growth in China and Asia.
- The UK halved its annual emissions from 1990 to 2022, whilst growing its economy by nearly 80%. The decoupling is real.
- Emissions from domestic transport are now the largest source of annual UK emissions, overtaking energy supply.
Since the first Conference of the Parties in Berlin in 1995, global emissions have grown rapidly. The pace of growth has slowed since Paris in 2015. Ten years on, the primary source of human-caused emissions has yet to peak.
The regional picture is more nuanced. The United Kingdom’s record is particularly striking: a 50% reduction in annual emissions between 1990 and 2022, alongside GDP growth of nearly 80%. That progress has been offset by strong growth from China, which now accounts for close to a quarter of global annual emissions alone.
Global CO₂ trend: fossil fuels (indexed)
Annual emissions from fossil fuel combustion, 2000–2024. Source: Our World in Data / Hannah Ritchie (2022)
UK: Emissions vs GDP, 1990–2022
Indexed to 1990 = 100. Demonstrates decoupling of economic growth from emissions. Source: UK Government
Policy held. Investment grew. Carbon must get more expensive.
The structural conditions for transition — policy, capital and corporate commitment — have continued to strengthen in 2025, despite unprecedented political pressure.
Key findings
- 37 jurisdictions covering 85% of global emissions have all strengthened climate policy ambition since 2020. Formal rollbacks occurred in only one: the United States.
- Nearly 11,000 companies have set or committed to set science-based emissions targets, representing over 40% of global market capitalisation.
- Global energy transition investment hit $2.1 trillion in 2024. China drove two-thirds of the global increase.
- Under all NGFS transition scenarios, the weighted average global carbon price moves beyond $100 per tonne by 2030 — five times the current price.
The narrative of a global policy retreat on climate is largely fiction. The Oxford Climate Policy Monitor, which tracks rules across 37 jurisdictions covering more than 85% of global emissions, found that all 37 show increases in ambition, stringency and comprehensiveness since 2020. The US is the only jurisdiction to have recorded formal rollbacks.
Capital flows tell the same story. Global investment in the energy transition reached $2.1 trillion in 2024. The Asia-Pacific region grew fastest at 21% year-on-year, surpassing $1 trillion for the first time.
Carbon price by 2030
Under every NGFS transition scenario, the weighted average global carbon price exceeds $100 per tonne by 2030. Five times its current level. Companies that have not prepared for this will feel it.
Of global market cap
Science-based targets now cover over 40% of global market capitalisation and a quarter of global revenue. This is not a niche movement.
Global energy transition investment ($bn)
Annual investment in energy transition assets, 2019–2024. Source: BloombergNEF, January 2025
SBTi company commitments (cumulative)
Companies that have set or committed to set science-based emissions reduction targets. Source: SBTi Trend Tracker, August 2025
Renewables have won the economics argument. Storage must catch up.
The energy transition indicators show the strongest performance across Perigon’s index. Renewables dominate new capacity. EVs are accelerating. The bottleneck is now storage and grid integration.
Key findings
- Renewables accounted for over 90% of total new power capacity added globally in 2024. Their share of total installed capacity rose from 43% to 46%.
- Electric car sales exceeded 17 million globally in 2024. In China, EVs now represent almost half of all new car sales.
- Electric car sales in 2025 are expected to exceed 20 million — more than a quarter of all cars sold worldwide.
- Energy storage additions are expected to grow 23% in 2025. Storage capacity needs to grow 10× by 2035 to meet IEA’s stated policies scenario.
- Global energy intensity improved by 1.2% in 2024. It needs to nearly double to 2.2% per year to align to STEPS by 2035.
Renewable energy is no longer the environmentally correct choice. It is the economically rational one. The levelised cost of electricity from most forms of renewable power has continued to fall, making renewables the most cost-effective power source for the majority of countries.
Electric vehicle adoption has exceeded nearly every mainstream forecast from a decade ago. The 3.5 million additional electric cars sold in 2024 compared to 2023 is greater than the total number of electric vehicles sold worldwide in 2020. China maintains a commanding lead: EVs now represent almost half of all new car sales.
Global EV sales share (%)
Electric vehicle share of total car sales globally. Source: IEA Global EV Outlook 2025
Renewable share of installed capacity (%)
Share of renewables in total global installed power capacity. Source: IRENA, 2025
“In the first half of 2025, China installed more than twice as much solar capacity as the rest of the world combined.”
Ember Energy, August 2025The energy story is positive. The rest is harder.
Beyond the electricity grid and the EV transition, the non-energy indicators present a more troubling picture. Deforestation and carbon capture both require substantial acceleration.
Key findings
- Global deforestation in 2024 was 63% above the rate required to achieve zero deforestation by 2030. We have made almost no progress since the 2018–2020 baseline.
- Carbon capture and storage (CCUS) has over 700 projects in development. But even announced capacity leaves a 40% gap to IEA’s net-zero requirements by 2030.
- Potential CO₂ captured by 2030: 435 million tonnes per year. Required for net zero: approximately 1 billion tonnes per year.
63% off the trajectory. We have lost almost four years.
Achieving zero deforestation by 2030 requires a 10% annual reduction in the global deforestation rate from the 2018–2020 baseline. In 2024, the actual rate was 2% below baseline. Not 10%. Four years of pledges have not translated into measurable action on the ground.
Source: WRI Deforestation and Restoration Targets Tracker, May 2025
700 projects in development. A 40% gap remains.
Momentum has grown substantially, with over 700 projects at various development stages. But even the most optimistic scenario — including all announced storage capacity — leaves a 40% gap to the 1 billion tonnes per year required in the IEA’s net-zero scenario by 2030.
Source: IEA Carbon Capture, Utilisation and Storage, April 2024
Deforestation rate vs target trajectory (indexed)
Actual vs required annual deforestation reduction. Baseline: 2018–2020. Source: WRI, 2025
CCUS capacity: current vs required (MtCO₂/yr)
Current operational, announced and net-zero requirement for 2030. Source: IEA, 2024
Corporate ambition is real. Delivery is still a work in progress.
The corporate transition is accelerating but uneven. Commitment is ahead of execution. The gap between stated ambition and disclosed progress is narrowing, but has not yet closed.
Key findings
- 83% of C-suite leaders increased sustainability investment in the past year. 97% expect to do so over the next three years.
- The share of 2,000 major companies disclosing Scope 3 emissions rose from 36% in 2022 to 49% in 2024. Climate scenario planning rose from 52% to 64%.
- Science-based targets now cover over 40% of global market capitalisation, and a quarter of global revenue.
- Accenture’s 2025 analysis finds that 38% of large companies are on track to meet their net-zero targets. That means 62% are not.
The corporate transition has moved from early adopters to mainstream. At the largest companies, sustainability is now a board-level priority with disclosed targets, explicit investment and defined governance. At mid-sized companies, the picture is more mixed. At smaller companies, the journey is often just beginning.
Corporate Management Quality scores (2,000 companies)
Distribution across TPI Management Quality levels 0–5. Source: TPI, State of the Corporate Transition, September 2025
Corporate disclosure improvements (%)
Share of 2,000 assessed companies with each disclosure practice, 2022 vs 2024. Source: TPI, 2025
How we built this. So you can check our working.
Full methodology, data sources and glossary for the Low-Carbon Transition Index.
Analytical framework
Perigon’s LCTI assigns each indicator a score for its performance versus the prior year (direction of travel) and a score relative to what is required to align to the 2035 goals of the IEA’s Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS). The two scores are combined for each indicator, with a higher weighting (60%) applied to relative performance, before being aggregated into overall scores out of 100.
Data sources
| Indicator | Primary source | Date |
|---|---|---|
| Global CO₂ emissions | Our World in Data / Hannah Ritchie (2022) | 2024 |
| Renewable energy capacity | IRENA, Renewables in 2024: 5 Key Facts | April 2025 |
| Energy transition investment | BloombergNEF, Energy Transition Investment Trends | January 2025 |
| Electric vehicle sales | IEA, Global EV Outlook 2025 | July 2025 |
| Energy storage | BloombergNEF, 2H 2025 Energy Storage Market Outlook; IEA WEO 2025 | October 2025 |
| Energy intensity | IEA World Energy Outlook 2025 | 2025 |
| Climate policy | Oxford Climate Policy Monitor Annual Review | November 2025 |
| Science-based targets | SBTi Trend Tracker | August 2025 |
| Carbon pricing scenarios | NGFS Short-term Climate Scenarios | May 2025 |
| Deforestation | WRI Deforestation and Restoration Targets Tracker | May 2025 |
| Carbon capture | IEA Carbon Capture, Utilisation and Storage | April 2024 |
| Corporate management quality | Transition Pathway Initiative, State of the Corporate Transition | September 2025 |
| C-suite sustainability priorities | Deloitte 2025 C-Suite Sustainability Report | 2025 |
| Corporate decarbonisation | Accenture, Destination Net Zero 2025 | 2025 |
| Investor intentions | Morgan Stanley Institute for Sustainable Investing, 2025 | November 2025 |
| UK emissions and GDP | UK Climate Change Commission, Seventh Carbon Budget; DESNZ 2025 | 2025 |
Glossary
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| LCTI | Low-Carbon Transition Index: Perigon’s annual index tracking real-economy transition progress |
| STEPS | Stated Policies Scenario: IEA scenario reflecting currently announced policies and targets |
| NZE | Net Zero Emissions by 2050 scenario (IEA) |
| SBTi | Science Based Targets initiative: sets and validates corporate emissions reduction targets |
| CCUS | Carbon Capture, Utilisation and Storage |
| NGFS | Network for Greening the Financial System |
| TPI | Transition Pathway Initiative: academic and investor body assessing corporate transition quality |
| IRENA | International Renewable Energy Agency |
| BNEF | BloombergNEF: energy transition research arm of Bloomberg |
| WRI | World Resources Institute |
This report was prepared by Perigon Partners. Analysis as of January 2026. All sources cited in full above.
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