Perigon Partners · Annual Research Series · All editions

The Low-Carbon Transition Index. The data, not the noise.

An annual independent index tracking real-economy progress on the low-carbon transition. Seven indicators. Primary sources only. Published each year to build a consistent, citable dataset.

$2.1tn Clean energy
investment in 2024
90%+ New power capacity
from renewables
17m EVs sold
globally in 2024
50% UK emissions cut since
1990, with 80% GDP growth
$5× Carbon price projected
by 2030 under all NGFS scenarios
About the index

One clear direction. Not enough speed.

There is a persistent gap between how the energy transition is perceived and what is actually happening. Political attacks, investor nervousness and news cycles have created the impression of a stalling, contested, uncertain shift. The data tells a different story.

Since the Paris Agreement in 2015, every major leading indicator of transition progress has moved in the right direction. The question is no longer whether the transition is happening. It is whether it is happening fast enough. And on that question, the answer is: not yet.

Perigon's LCTI scores seven indicators on direction of travel and performance relative to the pace required to align to the IEA's 2035 Stated Policies goals. We combine directional and relative performance scores for each indicator, weighted 60/40 in favour of relative performance.

Seven indicators. 2026 scorecard.

⚡
Electricity greening

Renewables 46% of installed global capacity

On track
🚗
Transport electrification

EVs exceeded 20% of global car sales in 2024

On track
🌱
Low-carbon fuels

Share increasing; hydrogen scaling slowly

On track
🔋
Battery storage

23% growth but needs 10x by 2035

Needs pace
🏭
Industrial electrification

Below pace required for STEPS

Needs pace
📉
Energy intensity of GDP

1.2% in 2024; needs 2.2% for STEPS

Needs pace
🌳
Deforestation

2024 rate was 63% above the required trajectory

Off track
The 2026 edition

First edition. The baseline is set.

All seven indicators across six sections, with a full Data Explorer, appendix and methodology. The first in an annual series.

First edition · Published June 2026
2026
The Low-Carbon Transition: From Perception to Reality
Indicators tracked7 real-economy indicators
Clean energy investment$2.1 trillion in 2024
EV sales17 million globally in 2024
Renewable capacity share46% of installed global capacity
Carbon price by 2030$100+/tonne under all NGFS scenarios
Deforestation gap63% above required trajectory
Read the 2026 edition →
Methodology

Primary sources only. No sponsor influences.

Every data point in the LCTI comes from a named primary source: IEA, IRENA, BloombergNEF, SBTi, Oxford Climate Policy Monitor, TPI, WRI and others. The index is entirely independent. No institution has paid to be included. No sponsor influences the findings.

Primary sources only

IEA, IRENA, BloombergNEF, SBTi, Oxford Climate Policy Monitor, TPI, WRI and others. All cited in full.

Scored two ways

Each indicator scored on direction of travel (year-on-year) and performance relative to IEA STEPS 2035 goals. 60/40 weighting to relative performance.

Annual cadence

Published each year to build a consistent dataset. Same seven indicators tracked throughout for comparability.

No political position

The LCTI describes what the data shows. Perigon does not advocate for specific policies. We report on what is happening and what the gap is.

Common questions

What people want to know.

The LCTI is an annual independent assessment of real-economy progress on the low-carbon transition. It tracks seven indicators across energy systems, enabling conditions and non-energy sectors, scoring each against the prior year and against the pace required to align to the IEA's Stated Policies Scenario. Published since 2026.
Yes. Every major leading indicator has moved in the right direction since the Paris Agreement. Renewables accounted for over 90% of all new power capacity globally in 2024. EV sales exceeded 17 million. Nearly 11,000 companies have committed to science-based targets. The question is no longer whether the transition is happening. It is whether it is happening fast enough. On that question: not yet.
Deforestation is the most critical failure. The 2024 rate was 63% above the trajectory needed for zero deforestation by 2030. Carbon capture leaves a 40% gap to net-zero requirements. Industrial and buildings electrification are progressing but below STEPS pace. Energy intensity improved 1.2% in 2024 but needs to nearly double to 2.2% per year.
Under every NGFS transition scenario, the weighted average global carbon price exceeds $100 per tonne by 2030. That is approximately five times the current level. Companies that have not prepared for this will feel it in costs, financing terms and competitive position.
No. The Oxford Climate Policy Monitor, which tracks 37 jurisdictions covering 85% of global emissions, found that all 37 show increases in ambition and stringency since 2020. The US is the only jurisdiction to have recorded formal rollbacks. Global energy transition investment hit $2.1 trillion in 2024. The narrative of global policy retreat is largely fiction.
Annually. The first edition was published in June 2026. Subsequent editions track the same seven indicators to build a consistent year-on-year dataset. All editions remain freely available at perigonpartners.co.uk.